House Shelves Alaska Drilling in Budget Fight

November 10, 2005

House Shelves Alaska Drilling in Budget Fight
By CARL HULSE

WASHINGTON, Nov. 9 - House Republican leaders were forced to jettison a plan for oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska on Wednesday night to save a sweeping spending bill, a concession that came one day after the party suffered significant election loses.

In dropping the drilling plan and a second provision, on coastal exploration, the leadership was trying to win over moderates in the party to enhance the chances of winning initial approval on Thursday of more than $50 billion in spending cuts demanded by House conservatives. But the decision is likely to meet objections from the Senate, where senior lawmakers are insisting on the drilling plan, a priority for President Bush.

The last-ditch effort by the leadership to avoid an embarrassing legislative defeat was the latest symptom of party unrest arising from instability in the leadership and anxiety about the 2006 elections. Those concerns were heightened by election results on Tuesday that Democrats and some Republicans said exposed the party's vulnerabilities and threatened its policy agenda.

"There is a clear message from the election results all over the country," said Representative Sherwood Boehlert, Republican of New York, an influential moderate. "The American people, by and large as a body politic, are looking for a more centrist approach."

Republican leaders inside and outside Congress dismissed suggestion that the election results were a factor in the budget fight or that they signaled major political problems for Republicans in the House and Senate or for President Bush. They noted Republican victories and said off-year voting did not signal a trend.

"The election results show a surprising amount of support for the status quo," said Ken Mehlman, chairman of the Republican National Committee. "There were 28 Republican governors before, there are 28 Republican governors now."

But Democrats said victories in governors' races in New Jersey and Virginia and in lower-profile contests elsewhere were a sign that dissatisfaction with conservative Republican policies had tipped the political balance toward Democrats as they head into a battle for control of Congress next November.

"It's clear that the elections in California, Virginia, New Jersey and across the country were a rejection of the misplaced priorities of the Republicans in Washington, D.C.," said Representative Nancy Pelosi of California, the Democratic leader.

In the elections' aftermath, Representative Rahm Emanuel of Illinois, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said he had been contacted by Democrats newly eager to jump into House races. He said voters in the Virginia governor's race in particular provided a new winning road map.

"They picked a Democratic message of fiscal discipline, health care and education investment over the tried-and-true, red-state, George Bush-tax cuts, death penalty and immigration," he said. "They picked a message of future versus past."

Senator Charles E. Schumer of New York, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said he expected senators facing potentially tough races to begin distancing themselves from the Bush administration and conservative policies, making it more difficult for Republican leaders to pursue new tax cuts and other initiatives.

"If you are a moderate Republican, you are starting to say, 'I am not going to follow George Bush over the cliff,' " Mr. Schumer said. "The polices that the president has invoked are not gaining favor with the American people."

Allies of Republican moderates acknowledged that the elections should be read as cautionary. Sarah Chamberlain Resnick, executive director of the Republican Mainstreet Partnership, said she expected that the group's moderate lawmakers would show added independence in coming months. "This is to maintain the majority, and, if somebody has to show a little separation to maintain the majority, I assume the leadership will understand that," she said.

Republican moderates concerned about the arctic drilling and reductions in spending on Medicaid and food stamps were the main holdouts against the budget cuts, and House leaders concluded they had no chance to advance the spending plan without major concessions. Authors of the measure also adjusted the food stamp provision to limit its impact on legal immigrants, to win votes from Republicans in states with significant populations of newcomers.

Representative Thomas M. Reynolds of New York, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, said he was trying to build support among his colleagues by arguing that the combination of improving the administration of federal benefit programs and reducing the deficit was a winning message.

Given President Bush's dismal poll numbers, a string of misconduct accusations against party leaders, unease about gas prices and the war in Iraq, other Republicans said it was surprising the party did not fare worse on Tuesday. Many said they were thankful they were not on the ballot.

"The standing right now is about as low as it gets," said Representative Michael N. Castle, Republican of Delaware.

One bright spot for Republicans was in New Hampshire, where the three-term mayor of Manchester, a Democrat, was defeated. Democrats had planned to recruit the mayor, Bob Baines, to run for a Congressional seat now held by a Republican.

In Virginia, Timothy M. Kaine's victory in the race for governor suggested a possible new pocket of electoral strength for Democrats in the South: the densely populated suburbs of Northern Virginia.

Residents there voted for the Democratic candidate even more overwhelmingly than in 2001, when Gov. Mark Warner won in defiance of the Republican theory that the party dominated the so-called exurbs.

Mr. Kaine fared especially well in Alexandria, Fairfax and Arlington Counties, and was strong farther out in Prince William and Loudon Counties, said Charles Cook, a nonpartisan analyst. "These are exurbs where Democrats had horrendous problems in recent years," he said.

Whether the election in Virginia reflected any national Republican unraveling may not, in the end, matter, Mr. Cook said. The loss there and in New Jersey "corroborates the view that it's a horrible year for the G.O.P. and getting worse," he said.

Anne E. Kornblut contributed reporting for this article.
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