U.S. fears prospect of Saudi coup, weighs invasion plans
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Tuesday, November 1, 2005
WASHINGTON —
The United States has raised the
prospect of a military invasion of Saudi
Arabia.
The House Armed Services Committee considered
the possibility of a Saudi coup and U.S.
response during a hearing on Oct. 26.
Saudi Arabia, with 200,000 military and
National Guard troops, is the largest oil
producer and exporter, with an output of nine
million barrels of oil per day, according to
Middle East Newsline. The Arab kingdom is the
third largest supplier of oil to the United
States, with more than 1.55 million barrels per
day.
The scenario was outlined by Michael O'Hanlon,
a senior fellow of the Brookings Institution,
who cited a Saudi coup as one of several
threats to the United States.
"How should the United States respond if a
coup, presumably fundamentalist in nature,
overthrows the royal family in Saudi Arabia?"
O'Hanlon asked. "Such a result would raise the
specter of major disruption to the oil
economy."
The response could include the deployment of
three U.S. Army divisions backed by
fighter-jets and airborne early-warning and
alert aircraft. In all, the U.S.-led mission
could include up to 300,000 troops.
Congressional sources said the House hearing,
which focused on future threats in the Middle
East and other regions, marked increasing U.S.
concern of Saudi instability. They said the
open hearing echoed a series of briefings on
Saudi and Gulf Arab instability given by
non-government analysts to the State
Department, Defense Department and National
Security Council since 2002.
The House committee was told that U.S. concern
of a Saudi coup appears greater than ever.
O'Hanlon said such a coup would also
destabilize Pakistan, a nuclear power since
1998.
"This type of scenario has been discussed for
at least two decades and remains of concern
today — perhaps even more so — given the surge
of terrorist violence in Saudi Arabia in recent
years as well as the continued growth and
hostile ideology of Al Qaida along with the
broader Wahabi movement," O'Hanlon said. In his
testimony, O'Hanlon envisioned a Saudi coup as
resulting in the emergence of what he termed a
fundamentalist regime intent on acquiring
nuclear weapons. Another prospect was that the
new regime would seek to disrupt the oil
market.
"Indeed, it might be feasible not to do
anything at first, and hope that the new regime
gradually realized the benefits of
reintegrating Saudi Arabia at least partially
into the global oil economy," O'Hanlon said.
"But in the end the United States and other
western countries might consider using force."
O'Hanlon envisioned a U.S.-led military
operation designed to seize Saudi oil wells,
located along the eastern coast. Washington and
its allies would place the proceeds from Saudi
oil sales into escrow for a future pro-Western
government in Riyad.
A U.S.-led military force of 300,000 would be
required to secure the entire Saudi Arabia,
O'Hanlon said. He said about 10,000 troops
could capture eastern Saudi Arabia, which
contains virtually all of the kingdom's oil
wells. But more than 100,000 additional troops
would be required to protect the wells and
other vital infrastructure.
"An operation to overthrow the new Saudi regime
and gradually stabilize a country of the size
in question would probably require in the
vicinity of 300,000 troops, using standard
sizing criteria," O'Hanlon said. "So in fact a
coastal strategy, while easier in some ways and
perhaps less bloody in the initial phases,
could be fully half as large and might last
much longer."
===========
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Tuesday, November 1, 2005
WASHINGTON —
The United States has raised the
prospect of a military invasion of Saudi
Arabia.
The House Armed Services Committee considered
the possibility of a Saudi coup and U.S.
response during a hearing on Oct. 26.
Saudi Arabia, with 200,000 military and
National Guard troops, is the largest oil
producer and exporter, with an output of nine
million barrels of oil per day, according to
Middle East Newsline. The Arab kingdom is the
third largest supplier of oil to the United
States, with more than 1.55 million barrels per
day.
The scenario was outlined by Michael O'Hanlon,
a senior fellow of the Brookings Institution,
who cited a Saudi coup as one of several
threats to the United States.
"How should the United States respond if a
coup, presumably fundamentalist in nature,
overthrows the royal family in Saudi Arabia?"
O'Hanlon asked. "Such a result would raise the
specter of major disruption to the oil
economy."
The response could include the deployment of
three U.S. Army divisions backed by
fighter-jets and airborne early-warning and
alert aircraft. In all, the U.S.-led mission
could include up to 300,000 troops.
Congressional sources said the House hearing,
which focused on future threats in the Middle
East and other regions, marked increasing U.S.
concern of Saudi instability. They said the
open hearing echoed a series of briefings on
Saudi and Gulf Arab instability given by
non-government analysts to the State
Department, Defense Department and National
Security Council since 2002.
The House committee was told that U.S. concern
of a Saudi coup appears greater than ever.
O'Hanlon said such a coup would also
destabilize Pakistan, a nuclear power since
1998.
"This type of scenario has been discussed for
at least two decades and remains of concern
today — perhaps even more so — given the surge
of terrorist violence in Saudi Arabia in recent
years as well as the continued growth and
hostile ideology of Al Qaida along with the
broader Wahabi movement," O'Hanlon said. In his
testimony, O'Hanlon envisioned a Saudi coup as
resulting in the emergence of what he termed a
fundamentalist regime intent on acquiring
nuclear weapons. Another prospect was that the
new regime would seek to disrupt the oil
market.
"Indeed, it might be feasible not to do
anything at first, and hope that the new regime
gradually realized the benefits of
reintegrating Saudi Arabia at least partially
into the global oil economy," O'Hanlon said.
"But in the end the United States and other
western countries might consider using force."
O'Hanlon envisioned a U.S.-led military
operation designed to seize Saudi oil wells,
located along the eastern coast. Washington and
its allies would place the proceeds from Saudi
oil sales into escrow for a future pro-Western
government in Riyad.
A U.S.-led military force of 300,000 would be
required to secure the entire Saudi Arabia,
O'Hanlon said. He said about 10,000 troops
could capture eastern Saudi Arabia, which
contains virtually all of the kingdom's oil
wells. But more than 100,000 additional troops
would be required to protect the wells and
other vital infrastructure.
"An operation to overthrow the new Saudi regime
and gradually stabilize a country of the size
in question would probably require in the
vicinity of 300,000 troops, using standard
sizing criteria," O'Hanlon said. "So in fact a
coastal strategy, while easier in some ways and
perhaps less bloody in the initial phases,
could be fully half as large and might last
much longer."
===========
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