original
William M. Arkin on National and Homeland Security
**still think the US is going to leave Iraq? It's not going to happen. Oh, they'll call it something else, I'm sure, but the US isn't leaving EG:) **
The U.S. military has developed a ten-year plan for "deep storage" of munitions and equipment in at least six countries in the Middle East and Central Asia to prepare for regional war contingencies.
The plans, revealed in March 2006 contracting documents, call for the continued storage of everything from packaged meals ready to eat (MREs) to missiles in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman, as well as the establishment of two new storage hubs, one in a classified Middle Eastern country "west" of Saudi Arabia ("Site 23") and the other in a yet to be decided "central Asian state."
Though President Bush yesterday expressed the view that U.S. forces would stay in Iraq past 2008, the plans to continue to "pre-position" war materiel in the Persian Gulf region leave ambiguous whether the U.S. military foresees the ability to establish a permanent present in Iraq in the long-term.
By 2016, the contracting documents show that the tonnage of air munitions stored at sites outside Iraq will double from current levels.
Central to the U.S. military presence in the Middle East to fight both the Afghanistan and Iraq wars has been the use of pre-positioned war materiel and the quick establishment of expeditionary bases. At the height of operations in both countries in 2003, the Air Force, for instance, operated from 36 bases in and around the region. That number has since shrunk to 14 today, including four main operating bases in Iraq.
The Department of Defense conducted a Global Posture Review in 2004-2005 focused on the realignment of forward-deployed forces in Europe and Asia in light of the military’s predominant focus on the Middle East.
Under the Review, up to 70,000 troops will be relocated to the continental United States, primarily drawn from forces in Germany and Europe, and the Cold War presence in many parts of the world will end altogether (Washington just announced the withdrawal of all U.S. forces from Iceland, for instance.)
More central to the review though was the articulation of a basing strategy for those parts of the world - especially the Middle East - where no "permanent" combat forces are assigned. Here the strategy relies on a network of forward operating sites (FOS) capable of supporting rotational forces, as well as a set of more austere cooperative security locations (CSL) used for contingency purposes.
With the elimination of a permanent American presence that includes families and the typical Cold War accoutrements, the United States will not only have greater flexibility, but many political impediments will be eliminated as host countries will also be able to claim that there are no American "bases" on their soil.
**and the US and war apologists will also make the claim that the US doesn't have bases there either EG:) **
Though the United States began to pre-position war material in the Middle East after President Jimmy Carter established the Rapid Deployment Force to operate against a Soviet attack on the Gulf, it was the build-up for the 1990 Gulf War that cemented many of the basing relationships today.
The U.S. withdrew most of its forces from the region in 1991 and established the ability to surge its forces from the United States while continuing to conduct air operations from a half dozen countries in support of the enforcement of the Iraq no-fly zones.
After 9/11, these airbases as well as the continued presence of pre-positioned material in countries like Oman and Qatar became central to the U.S. rapid response in Afghanistan. After the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990, it took the United States five months to forward deploy its forces.
In 2001, existing headquarters and bases were used to run air operations from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf, ground operations were directed from a virtual U.S. permanent base in Kuwait, and special operations were centered on Oman. New expeditionary bases were established in places like Pakistan and Uzbekistan(as well as new bases in places like Bulgaria and Romania), but it was the existing web of forward operating locations and contingency facilities that allowed the immediate deployment.
Another factor that began to influence U.S. basing in the Middle East during the 1990's was information technologies that allowed forward operations with reduced manpower. The concept is called "reachback," defined in the Air Force Glossary as "the process of obtaining products, services, and applications or forces, equipment, or material from Air Force organizations that are not forward deployed."
In English, reachback allows much of the support infrastructure of the U.S. military to be deployed outside the region, even in the United States. For example, forward deployed reconnaissance aircraft can transfer their take electronically to analysis center in the continental United States. Similarly, the proliferation of unmanned aerial vehicles such as the Predator has enabled a smaller forward footprint as even pilots and planners are centrally located outside the Middle East.
After the current Iraq war, whenever that is, the Defense Department plans to shift the future U.S. forward presence in the Middle East from the "ever present" posture to one characterized as "enduring access" and "episodic employment."
**whatever the hell that means...smells like a constant state of war to me EG:) **
Pre-positioned materiel and ready-to-use though largely unoccupied bases are central to this strategy. This allows the maintenance of military capabilities without a large or visible U.S. presence, and compensates for the loss of Saudi Arabian bases and infrastructure closed with the toppling of Saddam Hussein in 2003.
Despite impressive physical facilities in Saudi Arabia, freedom of action from Saudi bases had always been a sticking point between the United States and the Kingdom. Prior to 9/11, the U.S. was already in the process of moving capabilities to Qatar and Kuwait and Air Force aircraft operations shifted to Al Dhafra air base in the United Arab Emirates. Now bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and the UAE constitute the permanent basing of the United States, no matter what the new fangled Pentagon labeling. Countries like Jordan, Egypt, and Yemen, and even Saudi Arabia, will continued to be pressured to support episodic operations and clandestine forces, just as they actually are doing today. The bases contract calls for the maintenance of at least a dozen equipment "sets" to establish quick air bases in these countries in the future.
As one looks at the U.S. military presence in the region today, the only real wild card is Iraq. Clearly, the pre-positioning contract indicates the plans of the United States to shift heavy material and supplies out of the country in the long-run. While planning for an Iran war doesn't hinge on Iraqi bases or access, clearly a friendly government to the United Statesand the prospects for "episodic" operations from Iraq changes the calculus of any war. It may also explain the "deterrent" or coercive effect accrued to the United States government in not making it clear what its long-term plans are in the country.
As the United States built up its forces in the region to fight the Afghanistan war, commanders and planners with the big picture saw Iraq in the future. The establishment of bases and headquarters and the communications infrastructure to support a modern military paved the way for the Iraq war. In fact, it can not be overstated the degree to which the forward deployment of U.S. military forces influenced the timing and seductiveness of a follow-on Iraq campaign. Who wanted to send everyone home and start all over with negotiations and access and networks when the capability to accommodate U.S. ground forces was in place and relatively "hot"?
If Iraq wasn't such a mess, the same thinking would be influencing the view of future war with Iran. But when Iraq is finished ... the U.S. military will already be ready. The sun never sets.
No comments:
Post a Comment