Iraqi insurgency strong and could get stronger: study

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20051202/pl_afp/usiraqinsurgents
Iraqi insurgency strong and could get stronger: study

December 1, 2005

WASHINGTON (AFP) - Despite US claims of progress in quelling the
insurgency in Iraq, it remains as robust as ever and could grow a good deal stronger,
according to a new study.

The study by two veteran defense analysts working for the Washington
Institute for Near East Policy also said the US operation in Iraq was at
a "tipping point" that will last for six to nine months.

"I think the outcome of this tipping period is probably going to dictate
whether or not the US effort in Iraq succeeds or fails," analyst Jeffrey
White said at a lunch unveiling the report.

The study said the insurgency, comprised of nationalists, members of
Saddam Hussein's toppled regime and foreign Islamic fighters, showed no
sign of losing steam 32 months after the US-led invasion.

"Although thousands of insurgents have been killed and tens of thousands
of Iraqis have been detained ... incident and casualty data reinforce
the impression that the insurgency is as robust and lethal as ever," it
said.

Moreover, the researchers said, the insurgency has managed to exploit
only a fraction of the disgruntled minority Sunni Muslim population with
any kind of military training.

"Should the insurgency succeed in exploiting this untapped potential, it
could greatly increase its military capabilities," they wrote.

The report was prepared by White, who spent 34 years at the
Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), and Michael Eisenstadt, a
former civilian-military analyst with the US army.

The tone contrasted with the assertion in the "national strategy for
victory in Iraq" unveiled by
President George W. Bush on Wednesday that US forces were making
"significant progress" in containing the insurgency.

Eisenstadt and White said the war in Iraq was still winnable, but added
that the fight "will be protracted and costly, and is likely to be
punctuated by additional setbacks."

US officials cited by the report estimated that the Sunni insurgency
counted up to 20,000 members, including 3,500 active fighters. White
told AFP the total number of supporters could top 100,000.

While Washington has billed Iraq as the central front in its war on
terror, White said foreign jihadists represented only 5-7 percent of the
insurgency and did not account for the majority of attacks or fatalities.

But he said say the anti-American forces were making extensive use of
religion and, in a new development, former members of Saddam's largely
secular regime were identifying increasingly with the Islamists.

"There is some kind of merging going on," White told the lunchtime
audience. "Whether this is a marriage of convenience or a marriage of
commitment remains to be seen."

The report said the insurgency had no hierarchy, but was a "web of
networks" drawing financial support from inside and outside Iraq. It
said support from
Syria and
Iran was "not insignificant" but not essential.

"The insurgency has access to all the weapons, explosives, financial
resources, and trained manpower it needs, in amounts sufficient to
sustain current activity levels indefinitely -- assuming continued Sunni
political support," it said.

The analysts said the insurgents had scored "important tactical and
operational successes" while establishing themselves as a major force in
the Sunni community and sowing doubts in the United States about the
continued presence of 160,000 US troops.

"This isn't just random activity or terrorist activity," White said.
"The insurgents are actually conducting a purposeful kind of strategy in
Iraq and are trying to counter the very kinds of things that we're
trying to do."

But the report noted the insurgents were vulnerable on several counts,
lacking a unified leadership and unqualified support from many Sunnis,
and tarred by the brutality of the jihadists' attacks on civilians.