Group: U.S. troops not leaving Iraq soon

Group: U.S. troops not leaving Iraq soon

By BETH GARDINER
ASSOCIATED PRESS WRITER
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/1107AP_Britain_Iraq_Forecast.html

LONDON -- Continuing violence and instability are likely to force President Bush's successor to keep large numbers of troops in Iraq, despite the recent passage of the Iraqi constitution in a referendum and other political progress, a leading military think thank said Tuesday.

Patrick Cronin, director of studies at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said many U.S. troops would probably have to remain in Iraq until well after the U.S. presidential elections in 2008.

"We're likely to see continued bloodshed and instability inside Iraq," Cronin said at a news conference where the institute issued its annual report on the world's military forces.

"This is a long-term proposition, and I would expect the next U.S. administration to have forces inside Iraq at a fairly large number for some years to come."

Cronin gave no figures on the force levels he thought likely. There are now about 159,000 U.S. troops in Iraq.

Last week, the commander of U.S. forces in Baghdad said it will take up to two years for the Iraqi army to have the military leadership and supplies it needs to operate on its own.

Maj. Gen. William G. Webster Jr. did not specify what impact his assessment would have on U.S. hopes for beginning a withdrawal of American troops from Iraq.

Earlier this year, U.S. military officials said they thought they could begin fairly substantial troop withdrawals next spring. But amid ongoing questions about the Iraqi army's training, they have since scaled back that prediction, saying some troop reductions are possible in 2006 but that any withdrawal will be based on conditions in Iraq.

While the high turnout for Iraq's constitutional referendum was encouraging, U.S. efforts to train Iraqi forces to take over security duties are moving slowly, the institute said. The charter received nearly 80 percent of the vote nationwide, and opponents didn't muster the two-thirds "no" vote they would have needed in at least three provinces to defeat it.

The institute's analysts also said they were pessimistic on the standoff between Iran and the West over Tehran's nuclear program.

"It's difficult to find a resolution in the positions of the two sides," said John Chipman, the institute's director.

Iran may try to slow a resolution by offering to return to negotiations, perhaps trying to involve a sympathetic nation such as South Africa, he said.

Britain, France and Germany would find it difficult to go back to the table following Iran's decision to end the talks, Chipman said. However, he said Iran probably would not have the capability to build nuclear weapons until the end of this decade at the soonest, so diplomacy has time to play out, he said.

Iran denies having any intention to develop nuclear weapons.